![]() The Dodgers have been favorites in 76 games this season and won 45 (59.2%) of those contests.Dodgers Stats and Trends Dodgers Betting Records Bet now! In Colorado and New Jersey, claim your 100% Deposit Match up to $250 now! 21+, see for Terms and Conditions. Underdog: Mets (-103, bet $103 to win $100)Ĭatch the excitement and bet with Tipico!ĭouble Down, Ohio! Deposit $200, Get $250.For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub. Major League Baseball odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook. Mets matchup, here’s what you need to prepare for Friday’s MLB action, including viewing options. Mark Canha led the Mets’ offense, going 1-for-2 with a double and two RBI. Max Scherzer was the losing pitcher after throwing five innings, giving up five earned runs on six hits while striking out seven. Freddie Freeman went 2-for-4 with a double, a home run and three RBI to lead them offensively.įriday, the Mets lost to the Padres 6-2. The Dodgers won their most recent contest versus the Angels by a 10-5 score Friday, with Michael Grove picking up the win pitching going six innings, giving up four earned runs on six hits while striking out six. Auto Racing / NASCAR Picks and Predictions.Women's World Cup Picks and Predictions.NFL Fantasy Football Rankings, Sleepers and Analysis. ![]() You can use the chart below as a reference for frequency in totals. Compare those odds to the odds of buying a half-point.Add that percent to the implied probability percentage.Divide the frequency of that number in half.Convert the odds of the original wager to an implied probability percentage.Since totals don’t have a positive and negative equivalent like margins, you only have to divide the frequency in half once. The same ideas and execution apply to NFL totals as well, with just one caveat. So to review, the process to determine the max price you should pay to add a half-point to a spread is: This means the earlier decision to pay -120 for the +3.0 was inefficient and will cost us in the long run. This price is the maximum price you should pay in this example to go from +2.5 to +3.0. Using the odds converter inversely, we know that a 52.58% probability is equivalent to -111 in American odds. Using the math we determined earlier, add our 3.8% push probability to get 52.58%. Using an odds converter, we can convert +105 into the implied probability of 48.78%. That leaves us with 3.8% for each.įor this example, let’s bring back in the fake point spread examples from earlier: Team We divide the frequency of losing by three into the two spreads of +3.0 (a push) and +3.5 (a win). Then we have to split that frequency in half again since spreads are offered in half-point increments while actual game margins are in full points. However, we need to split that frequency in half since we’re talking only about teams losing by three and not just all margins of three (which would include winning by three), so that leaves us with 7.6%. From our key numbers article, we know that since 1995 games have landed on three around 15.2% of the time. Let’s say we want to look at the merit of buying a half-point from +2.5 to +3.0. To illustrate that, here’s an example using the king of key numbers: three. If we think about it intuitively, the amount of juice we should pay to buy points should reflect the frequency at which that particular margin happens. When should you buy that half-point? Spreads So here is your wake-up call and a chance to reflect and learn. Like the uncountable amount of unnoticed times before, the hook never even became a factor, and as a result, you don’t even remember to reflect on the decision to buy the half point. Three hours later Sports Team has comfortably lost the game by two touchdowns. Seconds later, the screen reads, “Bet accepted: Team +3.0 -120.” Teamįlashbacks of seemingly every bet you’ve ever lost by that exact hook play through your head. You stare down the odds of your favorite bet of the day’s NFL lines, and you see the following options. You’ve done your fair share of reading, research, and even some data analysis to sharpen your game and become a +EV bettor. You pride yourself in being an above-average bettor, one certainly better than the casual betting friends of yours that let bets fly on a whim and hope to cash out big on ten-team parlays every weekend. It’s ten minutes before NFL kickoff, and it’s now time to place your favorite bet of the weekend. Simple techniques help find fair value prices and increase long term profitability.Most bettors don’t know the actual mathematical implications of laying the juice.Buying points is an option many books allow, and many bettors opt for.
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